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Making a Robust Strategy During Deep Uncertainty

Pharmaceutical vice presidents, executive directors, brand leads, marketing leads, and commercial leads:

As you assess your sales results, identify full-year risks/opportunities, and prepare your forecast, are you experiencing uncertainty associated with the unprecedented and transformational change impacting healthcare financing, delivery, and patient access?

The pressure has intensified to develop strategies that drive and identify new sources of revenue in an environment of intense drug cost scrutiny impacting patient access, affordability, and treatment experience. Transformational change is being driven by a convergence of forces such as:

  • Disruptive game-changing Inflation Reduction Act implementation consequences and preparation for the next round of product negotiations

  • Channel/customer transformations expanding impact of vertical integration to optimize revenue streams with demands for larger fees across books of business

  • Changing value expectations around the patient experience impacting access and affordability

  • Increasing demand for new prescription fulfillment models designed to help patients get the medications they need at a price they can afford

  • Drug finance and delivery evolution impacting drug launch success necessitating early commercialization R&D strategies assessing commercial viability of markets, priority therapeutic areas, and indication sequencing

Navigating Uncertainty by Anticipating Possible Futures While Still Operating in the Present* 

Uncertainty stems from the inability to compare the present to anything we’ve previously experienced. When traditional predictive tools reach their limits, we need to turn to strategic foresight, which uses scenario planning in an exploratory process to understand complex environmental dynamics (eg, trends, stakeholder needs, market shifts, evolving business models) and what it could mean for future pharma business models, customer engagements, and patient outcomes.   


The Challenge! Good strategy creates competitive advantage over time, but the uncertainty of the future makes it difficult to identify effective courses of action, particularly in the midst of a crisis. As a leader, how can you prepare for and unpredictable future while managing the urgent demands of the present?
The Way Forward! To make effectiver strategy in the face of uncertainty, leaders need to institutionalize stratigic foresight, harnessing the power of imaginations to build a dynamic link between planning and operations.
The Promise! The proctice of stratigic foresight provides the capacity to sense, shape, and adapt to change as it happens. One important element of the practice is scenario planning, which helps leaders navigate uncertainty by teaching them how to anticipate possible futures while still operating in the present.

When It’s Time to Act, It’s Too Late to Think.

Aventria Health Group can help you successfully anticipate and develop robust strategies in a time of deep uncertainty by designing a dynamic forum (live or virtual) tailored to your organization’s issues using our proprietary 2-step design methodology.

Step 1: Engage and Design

  • Craft and refine strategic questions

  • Voice of leadership—a series of one-on-one input sessions with the leadership team

  • Scenario creation—formulate 2 or 3 one-page scenarios

  • Scenario refinement—one-on-one consultations with the extended team

  • Findings report—basis for Learning and Sharing (Step 2)

Step 2: Learning and Sharing

  • Develop workshop playbook—prework for participants

  • Conduct the workshop—1-hour discussions of each scenario and record key insights

  • Harvest insights—identify core imperatives; “Beacons of Change” for the future

  • Final report—discussion output, learnings, and decisions

 

To learn more about our Strategic Foresight Business Planning Workshop to help you galvanize the best thinking of your organization and confidently take future action in the present, please reach out to:

Dave Dierk, Co-President

Dave Dierk, Co-President, 30-year sales and marketing thought leader in pharmaceutical diagnostics, biomedical, long-term care, managed care, employer, and pharmacy communications, at dwdierk@aventriahealth.com.



Paul G. Pochtar, RPh, SVP of Pharmaceutical Commercialization and Access Strategies

Paul G. Pochtar, RPh, SVP of Pharmaceutical Commercialization and Access Strategies, extensive experience in leading successful market access commercialization of both primary care and specialty pharmaceuticals throughout their life cycle, including several landmark oncology products, at ppochtar@pinnaclehc.com.


Making a difference in patient care by helping patients, providers, and payers collaborate on shared priorities


*Source: Scoblic JP. Learning from the future. Harv Bus Rev. 2020;98(4):38-47.




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